对于丙型肝炎，今年的亚太地区年会上讲得较多，尤其是近年来的一些研究新进展特别引人注意。

台湾的Ming-Lung Yu教授把丙型肝炎病毒感染后疾病的进展总结在一张PPT上，我翻译并重新画出来给大家看看。Yu教授在慢性肝炎后面的几个发展阶段打了3个“×”，治疗的目的就是阻止疾病的进展。

 
    日本学者Kamae等^[1]利用“MONARCH”成本效益模型对1000例慢性丙型肝炎患者的模拟寿命70岁进行预测。研究结果显示，立即治疗可减少丙型肝炎患者的肝脏并发症，也明显减少了每例患者的治疗费用。

注：MONARCH model(The modelling the natural history and cost-effectiveness of hepatitis) is a cohort-based Markov model developed in Microsoft Excel. The model simulates the natural history of HCV over a 40-year (lifetime) time horizon^[2].

References

[1]       Kamae I, Thomas W, Webster S, et al. Investigating treatment strategies to optimise clinical outcomes associated with emerging therapies for HCV. Hepatol Int. 2014. 8: S156, APASL 2014 Abstract: 239.

[2]       McEwan P, Yuan Y, Litauen G, Kim R. Cost benefit analysis of response guided therapy: dynamic disease markov modeling for patients with chronic hepatitis c virus (hcv) by fibrosis stages. Journal of Hepatology. 2011. 54(S363–S534, Poster 1167.).